Arizona Politics: Budget, Ballot Measures, and Border Policy

Arizona politics in 2026 runs on a split: a Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs, facing a Republican-controlled legislature, with an electorate roughly split in thirds among Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters. That tension has produced a record-setting veto count, a bipartisan budget, major court rulings on schools and abortion, and a November ballot stacked with Republican-referred measures the governor could not block. Here is what is driving the state right now and what to watch next.

Who Holds Power

Hobbs, who won the governorship in 2022 by less than a point, is the Democratic check on a Republican legislature that has held the state House since 1966 and the Senate since 1993.¹ As of early 2026, Republicans held a 33-27 edge in the House and 17-13 in the Senate.² Attorney General Kris Mayes is a Democrat. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, won the open U.S. Senate seat in 2024.

The voter registration numbers explain why nothing is settled. As of April 2026, Arizona had about 4.34 million registered voters: 35.5% Republican, 28.1% Democratic, and 34.5% unaffiliated or minor party.³ Joe Biden carried Arizona by about 10,000 votes in 2020; Donald Trump won it back in 2024 with 52.2% to Kamala Harris’s 46.7%.⁴ Maricopa County, with more than 60% of the state’s population, decides most statewide races.⁵

The Veto Wall and the Workaround

The 2026 legislative session, which ran January 12 through June 13, produced 2,190 proposals and an unusual volume of vetoes.⁶ Hobbs signed 125 bills and vetoed at least 151 during the session. Since taking office in January 2023, she has issued 541 vetoes.⁷

She rejected election bills requiring watermarks on ballot paper and making cast vote records public, immigration enforcement measures she said raised constitutional and litigation concerns, a bill opening gender-transition providers to lawsuits for care provided to minors, a ban on diversity and equity measures in state hiring, and legislation blocking state involvement in reintroducing Mexican gray wolves.⁷⁸ Bills she signed included a 24-hour reporting requirement for missing children to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, new restrictions on vape and nicotine sales to minors, and fentanyl sentencing enhancements.

Unable to override vetoes with their current margins, Republican lawmakers turned to concurrent resolutions, which place measures directly on the ballot and bypass the governor’s desk entirely. Seven cleared the legislature in the final days of the session, many on party-line votes.⁶

What’s on the November 2026 Ballot

Several Republican-referred constitutional amendments will go before voters this November, along with at least one voucher-reform measure advanced by the Arizona Education Association.

HCR 2001 would require government-issued ID to vote, mandate on-site ballot tabulation at polling locations, bar foreign nationals from spending to influence Arizona elections, and eliminate the active early voter list that automatically mails ballots. It would also move the deadline for returning early ballots to the Friday before Election Day. Over 264,000 Arizonans dropped off early ballots on Election Day in 2024, and Secretary of State staff have said some provisions could require thousands of new polling locations and tens of millions in new costs.⁹
HCR 2048 is framed around military families’ college savings, but critics say it would constitutionally entrench Arizona’s universal school voucher program and block future reforms.⁶
HCR 2044 would prohibit what sponsors call “racially discriminatory DEI practices” across state institutions, including K-12 schools and universities.⁶
SCR 1004 would ban automated speed and red-light cameras unless a community’s voters specifically approve them.⁶

The $18.3 Billion Budget Deal

Despite the veto fights, Hobbs and Republican leaders agreed on an $18.3 billion state budget, which she signed June 13, 2026, and labeled the “Arizona First” budget.¹⁰ It carries roughly $1.4 billion in tax cuts over three years, largely by conforming state law to recent federal changes under the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Among those changes: elimination of state tax on tips and overtime, an increased standard deduction, and new deductions for seniors and childcare expenses, plus an expanded child tax credit.¹¹

On the spending side, the budget backfills about $300 million from the general fund for K-12 schools after Proposition 123 (which drew from the state land trust) expired. It also funds free school meals, a 4% stipend for correctional officers, $48 million for childcare assistance, and $55.8 million for court-mandated prison healthcare staffing.¹¹ Healthcare provisions include $4 million for the 988 crisis hotline, $4.3 million in one-time rural hospital aid, and new Medicaid eligibility-verification requirements.¹² A three-year moratorium on new data-center tax incentives is projected to save $57 million.

Schools: An Adequacy Ruling and a Voucher Boom

Two education fights are moving at once. In August 2025, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Dewain Fox issued a 114-page ruling in Glendale Elementary School District v. State of AZ School Facilities Funding declaring Arizona’s public school capital finance system unconstitutional, citing crumbling buildings, leaking roofs, broken climate controls, and missing basic equipment including computers and school buses.¹³¹⁴ The lawsuit had been pending since 2017. Fox ordered the governor and legislature to produce a compliant system by early November, warning the state treasurer could otherwise be blocked from distributing education funds. Republican legislative leaders appealed, arguing the judge exceeded his authority. As of June 2026, the Court of Appeals had not scheduled arguments.¹⁵

Separately, the state’s Empowerment Scholarship Account program, which gives families public funds to spend at private schools or on other educational costs, has grown rapidly. As of January 2026, enrollment topped 100,000 students and gross cost approached $1 billion. The Department of Education needed an extra $59.8 million above its appropriation in fiscal year 2026 to cover growth, with projections of $154.2 million more needed in fiscal year 2027.¹⁶ Hobbs has proposed capping eligibility at households earning under $250,000. The Arizona Education Association is pushing a ballot measure to add new program rules, and HCR 2048 would push the opposite direction by locking the program into the state constitution.

Abortion After Proposition 139

In November 2024, Arizona voters passed Proposition 139, the Arizona Abortion Access Act, amending the state constitution to protect the right to abortion until fetal viability, roughly 24 weeks of pregnancy.¹⁷ Courts have used the amendment to dismantle earlier restrictions.

In March 2025, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Frank Moskowitz permanently blocked the state’s 15-week abortion ban. Attorney General Mayes had already agreed not to enforce it while litigation was pending.¹⁸ In February 2026, Judge Gregory Como issued a separate permanent injunction against several other restrictions: a ban on abortion for fetal genetic abnormalities, a prohibition on telemedicine for medication abortion, mandatory ultrasound and state-scripted counseling, and a 24-hour waiting period. The ruling held their “universal suppression of medical judgment and choice” failed the constitutional standard voters set.¹⁹ Republican legislative leaders have said they will appeal. The near-total 1864 abortion ban had already been repealed by the legislature in May 2024.¹⁷

Voting Rules and a Supreme Court Case

Arizona’s election rules are being fought on two tracks. In February 2025, the Ninth Circuit struck down several provisions of 2022 state laws that would have required documentary proof of citizenship for voters registering with the federal form, and that would have let county recorders cancel registrations based on a “reason to believe” a voter is not a citizen.²⁰

The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case in its October 2026 term. The questions include whether Arizona can require documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and whether it can purge voter rolls within 90 days of a federal election.²¹²² In 2024, the Court let Arizona require proof of citizenship for state and local elections but not federal races. Arizona currently has about 32,000 “federal only” voters registered without documentary proof of citizenship.⁹ HCR 2001, described above, is the parallel track at the ballot.

Immigration and Border Policy

Immigration consistently ranks as the top concern for Arizona voters.⁵ In 2024, voters approved Proposition 314, the “Secure the Border Act,” which created a state crime for entering Arizona from Mexico without legal status, added document-verification requirements for state benefits, criminalized using false identification to pass E-Verify, and set strict penalties for fentanyl sales.

One important boundary: the illegal-entry provision is not currently enforceable. It was written to take effect only after a similar Texas law had been in force 60 days, and federal courts have blocked that Texas law. The document-verification and fentanyl provisions are in effect.²³

During the 2026 session, the legislature passed additional immigration enforcement bills; Hobbs vetoed several, including measures requiring reporting of undocumented arrestees and expanding immigration data sharing.⁸ Attorney General Mayes reached a stipulated agreement with DHS and ICE to pause conversion of a Surprise warehouse into a federal detention facility, pending an environmental impact study.²⁴

Colorado River Water

Negotiations over new sharing rules for the Colorado River, which supplies Arizona along with California, Nevada, and the four upper-basin states, missed a federal deadline of February 14, 2026, and remain stalled. Federal officials have signaled they could impose their own plan but have not yet done so. The Bureau of Reclamation has had no permanent commissioner since January 2025, and the process has no formal third-party facilitator.²⁵ If the Bureau enforces one of the five management alternatives it outlined in January 2026, prolonged litigation, potentially reaching the Supreme Court, is considered likely. Hobbs vetoed six water-related bills during the 2026 session.²⁶

The Middle Housing Law

Arizona’s housing debate sharpened after House Bill 2721, signed in 2024, took effect on January 1, 2026. The law requires cities of at least 75,000 people to allow duplexes, triplexes, and townhomes on at least 20% of residential lots in each neighborhood and on all single-family-zoned land within one mile of a downtown.²⁷ Phoenix’s City Council unanimously approved a compliance ordinance in November 2025, over opposition from residents of historic neighborhoods including Willo and La Hacienda who said the policy would push demolition of older homes. Supporters point to population growth of nearly 5% since 2020. The law contains no price-moderation provisions, and critics question whether it will produce affordable units or primarily benefit developers.²⁸ A separate new state law imposes a $5,000 penalty on municipalities found to be intentionally obstructing single-family home construction permits.²⁹

What to Watch

The near-term calendar is unusually loaded. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear Arizona’s voter-registration citizenship case in its October 2026 term. In November, voters will decide the HCR 2001 election overhaul, HCR 2048 on vouchers, HCR 2044 on DEI, SCR 1004 on speed cameras, and at least one voucher-reform measure from the Arizona Education Association. The appeal of the school adequacy ruling is pending at the Court of Appeals. The Como ruling on abortion restrictions is also headed for appeal. And federal action on the Colorado River could come at any point if the basin states cannot reach their own deal.

1
Arizona Capitol Times. A Look at the Past to Imagine Tied, Flipped Legislature
2
National Conference of State Legislatures. State Partisan Composition
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Arizona Secretary of State. Voter Registration Statistics
4
Politico. Arizona Election Results
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ACLED. Sun Belt Showdown: Exploring Swing State Dynamics
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Arizona Mirror. AZ Legislature Ends 2026 Session
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Arizona Mirror. Katie Hobbs Adds 88 Vetoes to Her Record
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Office of the Arizona Governor. Governor Katie Hobbs Legislative Action Update
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Arizona Mirror. GOP Pushes Constitutional Amendment to Restrict Arizona Early Voting
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Office of the Arizona Governor. News Releases
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Arizona Capitol Times. Hobbs Signs $18.3 Billion Bipartisan Budget
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Arizona Medical Association. Arizona’s $18.3 Billion Budget: What Physicians Need to Know
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Arizona Luminaria. Judge Rules AZ School Funding Is Unconstitutional
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JURIST. Arizona Court Finds K-12 School Funding System Unconstitutional
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Arizona Capitol Times. Funding Freeze: GOP Seeks Delay in State School Overhaul
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Arizona Capitol Times. ESA Program Reaches 100,000 Students, Costs Soar Past $1B
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The Guardian. Arizona Court Ruling: 15-Week Abortion Ban
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ACLU. Arizona 15-Week Abortion Ban Permanently Blocked
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Arizona Mirror. Judge: Arizona Abortion Laws Are Unconstitutional After 2024 Amendment
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Voting Rights Lab. The Markup
21
Politico. Supreme Court Voting Registration Citizenship Arizona
22
PBS NewsHour. Supreme Court Will Weigh Trump-Backed Republican Push to Revive Arizona Voting Laws
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ACLU of Arizona. Know Your Rights Under Proposition 314
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Arizona Attorney General. Press Releases
25
PBS NewsHour. Why Colorado River Negotiations Stalled and How They Could Restart
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Arizona Capitol Times. Arizona Capitol Times
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Cronkite News. City Approves Middle Housing Plan
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AZ Family. How Arizona’s New Middle Housing Law Might Impact Specific Neighborhoods
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KJZZ. Politics