No, New Jersey is not a red state. It’s a reliably Democratic-leaning state with a Democratic governor, two Democratic U.S. senators, lopsided Democratic majorities in both chambers of the legislature, a nine-to-three Democratic edge in its U.S. House delegation, and a presidential voting streak that has gone to the Democratic nominee in every election since 1992.1270toWin. New Jersey Presidential Voting History The 2024 presidential result was closer than usual, which has fueled debate about the state’s direction, but by every standard measure New Jersey sits firmly in the blue column.
How New Jersey Votes for President
New Jersey has backed the Democratic presidential nominee nine elections in a row, from Bill Clinton in 1992 through Kamala Harris in 2024. Before that, it went Republican six straight times from 1968 through 1988. For most of the modern streak the state hasn’t been competitive at the top of the ticket: Democrats carried it by at least 14 points in every election from 2008 through 2020.1270toWin. New Jersey Presidential Voting History
2024 broke that comfort zone. Harris beat Donald Trump 52% to 46%, about a six-point margin, the narrowest Democratic presidential win in New Jersey since 1992. Every county in the state moved at least somewhat toward Trump compared to 2020, and he flipped five that Biden had carried: Morris, Passaic, Gloucester, Atlantic, and Cumberland.2New Jersey Globe. Six Maps That Show How Trump Surged in New Jersey
A Rutgers analysis concluded the tightening was driven more by Democratic drop-off than Republican growth. Harris received roughly 15% fewer votes than Biden did in 2020, while Trump added only about 4% to his 2020 total, and overall turnout fell from 70% to 63%.3Rutgers Bloustein School. Opinion: Is New Jersey Now a Swing State The sharpest movement showed up in densely populated, heavily Hispanic cities in the north. In Paterson, Trump’s share climbed from 9% in 2016 to 34% in 2024, and he became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Passaic County in more than thirty years.4New Jersey Monitor. Final Election Results Show Scope of Trump’s Success With N.J. Latino Communities Counties with above-average Hispanic populations swung 13 points toward Trump compared to 2020.5Nate Silver. Is New Jersey the Next Swing State
Even so, a Nate Silver analysis concluded New Jersey was “probably not” a swing state, noting it was still only the 11th-most competitive state and cautioning against reading a single election’s swing as permanent.5Nate Silver. Is New Jersey the Next Swing State
The 2025 Rebound
The 2025 cycle pushed hard in the opposite direction. Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the governor’s race with roughly 57% of the vote, beating Republican Jack Ciattarelli by more than 14 points, a result CNN called a “resounding victory.”6NJ Spotlight News. How Municipalities Voted for New Jersey Governor7CNN. New Jersey 2025 Election Results Turnout hit about 3.37 million, the highest for any non-presidential election in state history and the highest share for a gubernatorial race since 1997. Sherrill won back 57 municipalities Trump had carried a year earlier, including cities like Clifton, Passaic, Kearny, and Garfield.
Republican officials largely blamed the loss on backlash to the Trump administration, citing the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history and the termination of federal funding for the Gateway rail tunnel project. Republican Assemblyman Brian Bergen put it plainly: “It appears voters this year cared more about what Trump is doing than what’s happening in New Jersey.”8New Jersey Monitor. Republican Governor Election and Donald Trump
Democrats also expanded their state Assembly majority to 55 of 80 seats, the largest either party has held since 1975 and enough for a veto-proof supermajority.9NJ Spotlight News. Democrats Boost Majority Control in State Assembly
Who Runs State Government
As of 2026, Democrats control every branch and every federal office rooted in the state. Governor Sherrill took office on January 20, 2026.10New Jersey Monitor. New Jersey Governor Election11New Jersey Legislature. Our Legislature9NJ Spotlight News. Democrats Boost Majority Control in State Assembly Senators Cory Booker and Andy Kim are both Democrats, and the state’s 12-member U.S. House delegation is split nine Democrats to three Republicans.12GovTrack. Members of Congress From New Jersey
Voter Registration
The registration numbers back up the Democratic label but show the gap closing. As of August 2025, Democrats held a lead of roughly 865,000 registered voters. That’s down from 1.1 million in August 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, Republican registration grew by 167,000 (11%) while Democratic registration fell by 47,000 (2%).13New Jersey Monitor. NJ GOP Sees Big Increase in Voters, but Dems Maintain Healthy Lead
How the State Governs
New Jersey’s policy record is what most people mean when they call a state blue. Its gun laws rank seventh strictest in the country, with a composite score of 80.5 out of 100, and include mandatory permits and background checks for all firearm purchases, a ban on assault-style weapons, prohibitions on ghost guns and high-capacity magazines, and an extreme risk law that lets courts order temporary gun removal. The state’s firearm death rate, 4 per 100,000, sits well below the national rate of 12.8.14Everytown Research. New Jersey Gun Law Rankings
Recent legislative moves have expanded early voting for primary elections from three days to six, redesigned ballots to eliminate a “county line” format that a federal judge ruled unconstitutional, and advanced legislation restricting workplace non-disclosure agreements around abuse. Attorney General Matt Platkin joined a multistate lawsuit in 2025 challenging the federal cancellation of teacher training grants.15Rutgers Policy Lab. New Jersey State Policy Updates
The Caveat Worth Knowing
Calling New Jersey blue is accurate, but the label hides real movement underneath. Historically Republican suburbs in Somerset, Morris, and Hunterdon counties have been drifting toward Democrats, while working-class, historically Democratic areas in Salem, Gloucester, Atlantic, and Cumberland counties have shifted toward Republicans.16Split Ticket. New Jersey’s Realignment The 2024 result showed the state’s urban Democratic base, especially working-class Hispanic voters, is not locked in. The 2025 result showed the same voters can swing back hard in a different environment. Whether that volatility becomes a lasting realignment or fades with Trump-era politics is an open question. For now, the Democratic registration advantage, the legislative supermajorities, and the policy direction all point the same way.