The 2026 race in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is a rematch: Democratic incumbent Don Davis faces Republican Laurie Buckhout in November, with Libertarian Tom Bailey also on the ballot. After a mid-decade redraw that pulled the district’s lines rightward, the Cook Political Report rates the seat R+5 and classifies the general election as “Lean R.”1Cook Political Report. North Carolina 1st Congressional District It is one of the most closely watched U.S. House contests of the cycle and a top Republican pickup target.
Why This Race Got Competitive: The 2025 Redraw
On October 22, 2025, the North Carolina General Assembly approved a new congressional map. State Senator Ralph Hise, the map’s primary author, said the purpose was partisan advantage.2Courthouse News Service. North Carolina Voters Back Out of Case Challenging 2025 Congressional Map
The redraw moved several coastal counties from the 3rd District into the 1st: Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde, and Pamlico, plus a portion of Onslow. Greene, Lenoir, Wilson, and Wayne Counties shifted the other way, out of the 1st and into the 3rd.3Carolina Demography. Demographic Change in NCs New Congressional Districts The demographic shift was sharp. The Black citizen voting-age population in NC-1 dropped from 40.7% to 32.1%. The white share climbed from 52.3% to 61.4%. Among voters added from the old 3rd, 78.7% were white and 13.9% were Black, and the incoming population skewed older and more conservative.
The military footprint also changed. Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in Wayne County is now outside the district, while Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point in Craven County is inside it. Cherry Point supports the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing and Fleet Readiness Center East, with nearly 6,000 active-duty Marines and sailors and more than 5,400 civilian employees.4Military OneSource. MCAS Cherry Point
The Legal Challenge Is Over
A coalition including the North Carolina NAACP sued in federal court, arguing the map was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander that diluted Black voting power. In November 2025, a three-judge panel of Fourth Circuit Judge Allison Rushing and U.S. District Judges Thomas Schroeder and Richard Myers denied a preliminary injunction. The panel acknowledged the map makes it “less likely for Black voters in northeastern North Carolina’s First and Third Congressional districts to elect their preferred candidates,” but concluded the changes fell within permissible partisan gerrymandering because race and partisan preference are highly correlated in the region.5Carolina Public Press. Federal Judges Squelch Challenge to New NC Congressional District Map
On January 16, 2026, the plaintiffs voluntarily dismissed the case, a move that prevents them from refiling these specific claims against the 2025 map.2Courthouse News Service. North Carolina Voters Back Out of Case Challenging 2025 Congressional Map The new boundaries will govern the 2026 midterms.
Don Davis: The Democratic Incumbent
Davis, first elected in 2022 to succeed the retiring G.K. Butterfield, won reelection in 2024 against Buckhout by 49.5% to 47.8%, a margin of roughly 6,300 votes out of more than 376,000 cast under the old, more favorable lines.6The New York Times. North Carolina US House District 1 Results A 1994 graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy, he served eight years as a commissioned Air Force officer, later served as mayor of Snow Hill and six terms in the North Carolina State Senate, and became the first Black graduate of the Air Force Academy to serve in Congress.7NC Newsline. Democrat Don Davis Votes With the GOP as He Seeks Reelection
Davis has built one of the most bipartisan voting records in the House. The Lugar Center/McCourt School Bipartisan Index ranked him the fifth most bipartisan House member overall and the second most bipartisan House Democrat during the 118th Congress.8U.S. House of Representatives. Congressman Don Davis Ranked Fifth Most Bipartisan US House Representative ProPublica data cited in 2024 showed him voting against his party 12.6% of the time, more than double the House Democratic average of 5.6%.7NC Newsline. Democrat Don Davis Votes With the GOP as He Seeks Reelection His crossover votes have included Republican-backed energy and appropriations bills and the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act.
He sits on the House Agriculture Committee, where he is ranking member of the Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development, and on the House Armed Services Committee, where he serves as vice ranking member.9U.S. House of Representatives. About Congressman Don Davis His campaign has centered on housing, health care, job creation, and infrastructure, with an emphasis on his military background and local ties rather than national partisan fights.10The Assembly. Don Davis 1st Congressional District He faced no Democratic primary challenger.
Laurie Buckhout and the Republican Primary
Five Republicans ran in the March 3, 2026, primary. Buckhout, a retired Army colonel and combat veteran who founded an electronic warfare consulting firm and served as the Department of Defense’s acting assistant secretary of cybersecurity from March to September 2025, was the 2024 GOP nominee returning for a second run.11WUNC. In NCs 1st Congressional District 5 Republicans Are Vying to Face US Rep Don Davis The field also included Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Senator Bobby Hanig, Lenoir County commissioner Eric Rouse, and family attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.
Under North Carolina election law, a candidate needs at least 30% of the vote to avoid a potential runoff. Buckhout cleared that threshold on election night with 26,624 votes (39.52%). Buck finished second with 23,227 (34.47%), Hanig third with 10,924 (16.21%), and Rouse and Russell in single digits.12North Carolina State Board of Elections. March 3 2026 Election Results The result locked in the Davis-Buckhout rematch.13Carolina Journal. NCs 1st Congressional District Heads for Rematch
The General Election
The November ballot features Davis, Buckhout, and Libertarian Tom Bailey.
Davis’s campaign finance reports through March 2026 show total receipts of roughly $3.2 million and cash on hand of about $2.88 million.14Federal Election Commission. Don Davis FEC Filing Buckhout’s campaign reported total receipts of about $2.74 million through mid-April 2026, with roughly $1.48 million in cash on hand. Her committee also carried approximately $3.5 million in debt, including more than $2 million in candidate loans.15Federal Election Commission. Laurie Buckhout FEC Filing
The race’s underlying math has shifted against Davis. He won by fewer than two percentage points in 2024 under lines that were friendlier to Democrats. The new map adds older, whiter, more conservative coastal counties and removes several communities where he ran strongest. His path relies on the formula that produced his previous wins: constituent service, a bipartisan voting record, military credentials, and a focus on local economic issues rather than national partisan battles. Buckhout enters the general with the tailwind of a district redrawn in her party’s favor and name recognition from the 2024 campaign.
What to Watch
Three variables will shape the outcome. The first is whether Davis can hold enough of the coastal Republican-leaning voters newly added to the district to offset the loss of Wayne, Wilson, Lenoir, and Greene Counties. The second is money: Davis begins the general with a cash advantage, while Buckhout carries significant campaign debt. The third is the national environment in a midterm year, which the Cook rating of Lean R already bakes in but which can still move a district decided in 2024 by roughly 6,300 votes.