Ohio is a red state. Whether you’re asking if Ohio is a red or blue state for the 2024 results, the current officeholders, or the near-term outlook, the answer runs the same direction: Republicans carry Ohio in presidential elections by double digits, hold every statewide executive office, run supermajorities in both legislative chambers, and hold both U.S. Senate seats. Donald Trump won the state by roughly eight points in 2016 and 2020, then by 11.2 points in 2024, taking 55.1% to Kamala Harris’s 43.9%.1Associated Press. 2024 Election Results: Ohio
From Bellwether to Reliably Republican
Ohio spent decades as the country’s most reliable presidential bellwether, voting for the winner in every election from 1964 through 2012. That run depended on a demographic mix — urban and rural, union and white-collar, Black and Appalachian — that roughly mirrored the nation.2Case Western Reserve University. Shifting Politics: Understanding Ohio’s Evolving Role as a Swing State
The mirror cracked in 2016. Trump carried Ohio by eight points while barely winning the national popular vote. He won it again by eight points in 2020 while losing nationally. In 2024 he pushed the margin to 11.2 points.3270toWin. Ohio Presidential Election Results The Republican share of the presidential vote climbed each cycle: 51.7% in 2016, 53.3% in 2020, 55.2% in 2024.4Kent State News Lab. An Uphill Battle for Democrats: How Ohio Went From a Purple State to Solidly Red Ohio no longer tracks the country. It runs well to the country’s right.
Why Ohio Shifted Right
Political scientists point to several reinforcing forces rather than a single cause.
Manufacturing and unions. Ohio lost roughly 359,000 manufacturing jobs between 1990 and 2019, and manufacturing’s share of employment fell from 21.7% to 12.5%.5Bureau of Labor Statistics. Exploring Midwest Manufacturing Employment From 1990 to 2019 Union density kept falling, dropping another half a percentage point between 2024 and 2025.6Policy Matters Ohio. Ohio Falls Behind on Union Representation Fewer union households meant fewer Democratic votes organized at the ground level in the small cities and factory towns where the party used to compete.
The white working-class realignment. As manufacturing receded, Republicans gained sharply with working-class white voters. Wright State University political scientist Lee Hannah said southeast Ohio moved “in droves” toward the GOP on a mix of class, cultural, and racial issues.7WYSO. Q&A: Why Ohio Is No Longer a Battleground State Ashtabula, Trumbull, and Mahoning counties in the northeast swung about 30 points toward Republicans between 2012 and 2020, flipping from blue to red.8Cleveland State University. The Rural, Suburban, and Urban Dynamic in Ohio Elections
Education and brain drain. Only about 32% of Ohioans hold a bachelor’s degree, more than four points below the national average.4Kent State News Lab. An Uphill Battle for Democrats: How Ohio Went From a Purple State to Solidly Red A 2019 congressional report ranked Ohio sixth in the nation for gross brain drain, with a 19-point education gap between residents who leave and those who stay.9Joint Economic Committee (U.S. Congress). Losing Our Minds: Brain Drain Across the United States College-educated voters — the group trending most Democratic nationally — are leaving. Hannah described Ohio’s trajectory as the inverse of Georgia, which has trended purple partly because college-educated residents have moved in.7WYSO. Q&A: Why Ohio Is No Longer a Battleground State
Rural identity. About 30% of Ohio’s population lives in rural areas, and those areas vote overwhelmingly Republican.8Cleveland State University. The Rural, Suburban, and Urban Dynamic in Ohio Elections Survey data shows that identifying as rural independently increases Republican support even after controlling for race, age, and religion.10Ohio Capital Journal. Rural Identity Emerging as Key Factor in Politics Outside the six major metro areas — Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Toledo, and Dayton — every Ohio county voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 2024.4Kent State News Lab. An Uphill Battle for Democrats: How Ohio Went From a Purple State to Solidly Red
Who Currently Holds Power in Ohio
The party breakdown across offices is the clearest single indicator of a state’s color, and Ohio’s is one-sided.
Governor Mike DeWine is a Republican, as are the secretary of state, auditor, and treasurer. The only Democrat holding a top statewide office is Ohio Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner.11Ohio Capital Journal. Here Are the Candidates Running for Ohio Statewide Office in 2026
Republicans hold 65 of 99 seats in the Ohio House and 24 of 33 seats in the Ohio Senate.12National Conference of State Legislatures. State Partisan Composition The Senate is above the 22-seat supermajority threshold. The House sits above the 60 votes needed to override a governor’s veto but just under the 66-vote two-thirds mark used on certain procedural matters.13Ohio Capital Journal. How the 2024 Election Impacts Balance of Power in Ohio Statehouse
Ohio’s 15 U.S. House seats split 11 Republicans to 4 Democrats.14GovTrack. Members of Congress From Ohio Both U.S. Senate seats are held by Republicans, a first in nearly two decades, after Republican Bernie Moreno defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown in 2024 by about four points.15Politico. 2024 Ohio Senate Election Results
Where Ohio Voters Break From the Pattern
Calling Ohio red describes candidate elections, not every ballot question. In November 2023, voters approved Issue 1, a constitutional amendment enshrining the right to abortion and other reproductive protections, 57% to 43%.16Ohio Capital Journal. Ohio Voters Pass Issue 1 The amendment won in 18 counties that had gone for Trump in 2020.17New York Times. Ohio Abortion Rights County Vote Ohio became the first Republican-governed state to enshrine abortion rights in its constitution. DeWine opposed the amendment, and legislators had tried earlier that year to raise the threshold for constitutional amendments to 60%; voters rejected that too, 57% to 43%.18NPR. 2023 Results: Key Ohio Elections
The Issue 1 result shows that Ohio voters can split from the Republicans they routinely elect when a specific policy question, particularly one about personal rights, appears on the ballot on its own.
The 2026 Races as a Live Test
Two contests in 2026 will show how firm the Republican advantage really is.
Governor
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech entrepreneur and former 2024 presidential candidate, won the GOP primary with more than 82% of the vote and carries DeWine’s endorsement.19NBC News. Ohio Governor Primary Results Democrat Amy Acton, a physician and Ohio’s state health director during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, ran unopposed and has raised $10 million, a record for an Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate.20Ohio Capital Journal. Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy Advance in Ohio Election for Governor A May 2026 survey of state lawmakers predicted a Ramaswamy win by 64% to 29%.21Ohio Capital Journal. Survey of Ohio Lawmakers Reveals Statehouse’s Predictions for the 2026 Midterms
U.S. Senate
Sherrod Brown is running again, this time against Republican Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat JD Vance vacated to become vice president.22The Guardian. Ohio Senate Race: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted Cook Political Report rates the race Lean Republican, though a March 2026 poll showed Brown at 47% and Husted at 45%.23Cook Political Report. 2026 Ohio Senate Race A Brown win would show that a Democrat with strong name recognition can still win statewide in Ohio. It would remain the exception in a state whose baseline now favors Republicans.
Could Ohio Become Competitive Again
Case Western Reserve University political scientist Justin Buchler has said Ohio remains “sufficiently close that a Democrat can win, statewide, under favorable conditions (such as having an incumbency advantage).”2Case Western Reserve University. Shifting Politics: Understanding Ohio’s Evolving Role as a Swing State The 2023 abortion vote and the tight early Senate polling back that up. But the structural pressures cut the other way: college graduates are leaving, rural voters are entrenching Republican, and the union network that once organized Democratic turnout has thinned. Hannah has said whether Ohio becomes a battleground again depends heavily on external factors, especially whether voters develop “buyer’s remorse” over the direction of the Republican Party.7WYSO. Q&A: Why Ohio Is No Longer a Battleground State Until something along those lines happens, the state that once picked every president is red.