Polling in the Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico shows one of the tightest statewide contests in the country: Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Democratic State Representative James Talarico by 0.6 points in the RealClearPolitics average, 45.2 percent to 44.6 percent, and major forecasters rate the race Lean Republican as of late June 2026.1RealClearPolling. 2026 Texas Senate Election Polling Average2Cook Political Report. 2026 Texas Senate Race Rating Every credible poll since the May 26 Republican runoff has come in inside the margin of error. That is unusual in a state where no Democrat has won a statewide race in more than three decades.
What the Individual Polls Show
The polls behind the average, running from late May through late June 2026:
- SoCal Strategies (June 21): Paxton 49, Talarico 47.
- YouGov / UT Austin (June 5–12): Paxton 43, Talarico 42.
- Siena University (June 1–4): Paxton 46, Talarico 46.
- Quantus Insights (June 3–4): Paxton 45, Talarico 43.
- Slingshot Strategies (May 27–28): Talarico 47, Paxton 44.
- Public Policy Polling (May 22–23): Talarico 45, Paxton 38.
Four polls show Paxton ahead, two show Talarico ahead, and none of the leads clear a normal margin of error.1RealClearPolling. 2026 Texas Senate Election Polling Average
What’s Driving the Numbers
The June UT Austin/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered voters (margin of error about 2.8 points) explains the closeness. Republican voters have consolidated behind Paxton at 84 percent, up sharply from 63 percent in April. Talarico holds 88 percent of Democrats. The gap opens with independents: Talarico leads that group 40 percent to 12 percent.3UT Austin Texas Politics Project. June Poll Finds a Competitive U.S. Senate Race in Texas
Two things follow from that. First, Paxton is still recovering ground within his own party after a divisive primary, in which he ousted three-term incumbent John Cornyn 63.8 percent to 36.2 percent on May 26 following a late endorsement from President Donald Trump.4NPR. 2026 Texas Primary Election Results5CNBC. Texas Primary Election Senate Paxton Cornyn Paxton’s unfavorable rating among Republican primary voters sat at 43 percent going into that runoff, unusually high for a candidate winning his own party’s nomination.6Houston Public Media. Paxton Cornyn Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Second, Talarico’s independent numbers are what make the race competitive at all; without them, a state with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6 would revert to form.2Cook Political Report. 2026 Texas Senate Race Rating
Who the Candidates Are
Ken Paxton has been Texas attorney general since 2015 and carries two significant legal chapters that Talarico has made central to the campaign. In May 2023, the Texas House impeached him on 16 articles centered on allegations that he abused his office to protect Austin real estate investor and campaign donor Nate Paul. The Texas Senate acquitted him on September 16, 2023; conviction required 21 of 30 eligible senators, and his wife, Senator Angela Paxton, was recused.7NPR. Ken Paxton Attorney General Texas Acquitted Impeachment Trial Separately, on a 2015 securities fraud indictment, Paxton reached an 18-month pretrial agreement on March 26, 2024 that requires roughly $300,000 in restitution, 100 hours of community service, and 15 hours of legal ethics education. If he completes the terms, all three felony counts are dismissed. There is no admission of guilt, and the deal does not affect his law license or eligibility for office.8PBS NewsHour. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton Makes Deal to End Securities Charges
James Talarico, 37, has represented Texas House District 50 since 2018. He is a former middle school teacher who attended Princeton Theological Seminary.9Texas Tribune. James Talarico He won the Democratic primary on March 3, 2026, defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett by roughly seven points.10Houston Public Media. Crockett Talarico Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election Results His general election message is built around Paxton’s legal history, which he calls “legal entanglements and corruption allegations.”11New York Times. Ken Paxton James Talarico Texas Senate Race
Money is one of the clearest asymmetries in the race. Talarico raised $27 million in the first quarter of 2026. Cornyn and Paxton, combined, raised $2.5 million over the same period.12PBS NewsHour. Democrats Relish Big Fundraising Gains for Senate Races Favoring Republicans The Cook Political Report has flagged Paxton’s ability to fund the next phase of his campaign as an open question.2Cook Political Report. 2026 Texas Senate Race Rating
The Third Name on the Ballot
Libertarian Ted Brown, a retired insurance adjuster and former chair of the Libertarian Party of California, was nominated at the Libertarian Party of Texas convention in Abilene in April 2026.13Amarillo Pioneer. Texas Libertarian Party Nominates 2026 Statewide Candidates Brown ran for the same seat in 2024 and drew about 267,000 votes, or 2.36 percent, a record for a Libertarian in Texas. He has said he plans to target “disaffected conservative” voters unwilling to back either major-party nominee. Political scientist Cal Jillson estimated Brown could take two to four percent of the vote, enough to matter in a race decided by fractions of a point.14Houston Public Media. Libertarian Ted Brown Senate Race Texas
Forecaster Ratings and National Stakes
Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the Texas seat Lean Republican as of late May 2026. The Crystal Ball moved the race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after Paxton secured the nomination, putting Texas in the same tier as Iowa.2Cook Political Report. 2026 Texas Senate Race Rating15UVA Center for Politics. The Senate: The Race for the Majority NPR categorized Texas as a “Longer Shot” for Democrats compared with Alaska, Maine, and Ohio, which sit closer to true toss-ups.16NPR. 2026 Midterm Elections Control Senate Race
Republicans hold a 53–47 Senate majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber, and Texas is one of the Republican-held seats they are targeting alongside Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio.1719th News. Senate Races Election 2026
What to Watch Before November
Two variables will move the polls between now and Election Day. On the Republican side, whether GOP consolidation keeps climbing past 84 percent, and whether former Cornyn supporters vote Paxton, sit out, or defect. On the Democratic side, whether Talarico can hold his 28-point lead among independents through a fall of paid advertising, and whether midterm turnout without a presidential race at the top of the ballot holds up in the metros and border counties he needs. Brown’s share is the wildcard between them: in a race polling inside a point, a Libertarian who pulled 2.36 percent last cycle could decide the outcome without winning a single county.
The general election is November 3, 2026.1719th News. Senate Races Election 2026