VA Senate Race: Warner, GOP Primary Field, and Polling

The Virginia Senate race in 2026 pits three-term Democratic incumbent Mark Warner against a Republican challenger who will be chosen in an August 4 primary, and every major forecaster expects Warner to win. The Cook Political Report rates the contest “Solid Democrat,” and the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls it “Safe Democrat.”¹² Early general election polling has Warner leading each of his potential Republican opponents by roughly 25 points.³

Mark Warner Seeks a Fourth Term

Warner has held the seat since 2009 and served as Virginia’s governor before that. He officially launched his reelection bid in March 2026, filing more than 18,000 signatures with the Virginia Department of Elections, well above the 10,000 required. The filing followed a five-day statewide tour.⁴

His campaign focuses on lowering costs, creating jobs, and preparing Virginia’s workforce for an economy reshaped by artificial intelligence. He has leaned on his national security credentials as vice chair and former chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and his work on technology policy, cybersecurity, and supply chain security. On foreign policy, he has criticized President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran, calling for a clearer strategy and greater congressional oversight.⁴

This is the first time Warner has faced a contested Democratic primary. Lorita Daniels, Gregory Eichelberger, Mark Moran, and Jason Reynolds also filed, though none has mounted a significant challenge.⁴

The Republican Primary Field

The Republican Party of Virginia has certified three candidates for the August 4 primary: retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa, certified public accountant Kim Farington, and Marine Corps veteran David Williams. All three qualified by submitting the required voter signatures. A fourth candidate, Chuck Smith, has a pending lawsuit over his ballot qualification.⁵

The field narrowed in late 2025 when state Senator Bryce Reeves, considered one of the higher-profile Republican contenders, withdrew due to a family health matter.⁴ Hung Cao, who lost to Democrat Tim Kaine in the 2024 Senate race by nine points, is not running; he is serving as the acting Secretary of the Navy in the Trump administration.⁶

A May 2026 poll from the Public Sentiment Institute of 382 likely Republican primary voters showed Mizusawa at 24 percent, Farington at 22 percent, and Williams at 10 percent. Forty-four percent chose “other” or undecided.³ All three candidates have emphasized alignment with President Trump, though none had secured his endorsement as of mid-June 2026.⁷

Bert Mizusawa

Mizusawa is a retired two-star Army general who graduated first in his class at West Point and holds a law degree and a master’s in public policy from Harvard. His military career includes a Silver Star for combat leadership at the Korean DMZ and command of a joint interagency task force in Afghanistan focused on counter-corruption and counter-narcotics operations. He served as deputy under secretary of the Army from 1998 to 2001 and later as a professional staff member for the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, where he co-authored the Quadrennial Defense Review legislation.⁸

His ties to Trump date to 2016, when he served as a senior national security adviser on Trump’s first presidential campaign. He later advised the CIA director. On policy, Mizusawa has called for local control over data center development, secure borders with no path to citizenship for people who entered the country illegally, and protections against federal use of eminent domain for private projects.⁹

Kim Farington

Farington has spent 33 years in public service, primarily in government financial management. She has worked at the Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Office of Personnel Management, and the White House, and served as chief financial officer of the First Responder Network Authority, where she managed a budget she describes as totaling $100 billion. A CPA and holder of three patents, she also founded KTech, a firm specializing in financial management, cybersecurity, and human capital management.¹⁰

She views data centers as a national security necessity but argues they should not be built near schools or residential communities, and she has proposed using nuclear microreactors to power energy-intensive facilities. On immigration, she supports what she calls “pro-immigration law enforcement,” favoring documented workers only when American labor is insufficient.⁹ She has described herself as “a big supporter of President Trump’s agenda” and voiced support for the anti-fraud task force led by Vice President JD Vance.⁷

David Williams

Williams is a Marine Corps veteran who served two deployments to Iraq, leading a platoon during his second tour. He currently holds the rank of lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps Reserves. After leaving active duty, he worked for the State Department in Latin America and served as a chief of station for the CIA.⁷ He is a graduate of Morehouse College and describes himself as the great-grandson of a sharecropper.⁹

His platform emphasizes border security, reducing the federal deficit, and tax relief for working Virginians. He has focused campaign energy on southwest Virginia and won a straw poll in the 9th Congressional District. Williams has said he hopes to earn Trump’s endorsement but has not received one.⁷²

Where the Republicans Agree and Differ

The three Republicans have coalesced around similar themes with differences mostly in emphasis. All support stricter immigration enforcement and alignment with Trump’s border policies. Data center development, a hot-button issue in northern Virginia and increasingly statewide, has emerged as a distinctive local issue: each candidate supports some version of community control over where data centers are built, with disagreements over how to power them and how aggressively to regulate their growth.⁹

What the Polling Shows

General election polls conducted in May 2026 showed Warner at 54 or 55 percent against each of his three potential Republican opponents, with each Republican drawing 29 percent. The Public Sentiment Institute surveys polled 1,047 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.³ An earlier Responsive Management poll taken in late 2024 and early 2025 tested a hypothetical Warner-versus-Youngkin matchup and found Warner leading by seven points, 45 to 38 percent. Governor Glenn Youngkin ultimately did not enter the race.¹¹

Virginia’s overall political trajectory has favored Democrats in recent cycles, though margins have tightened. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the state by roughly six points over Donald Trump, closer than Joe Biden’s ten-point 2020 win and more in line with Hillary Clinton’s five-point 2016 win. Republicans gained significant ground in northern Virginia, where the Democratic margin collectively narrowed by eight percentage points, though Harris still won the region overwhelmingly.¹² Democrat Abigail Spanberger then won the 2025 governor’s race by 15 points. Cook’s Partisan Voting Index for Virginia stands at D+3.¹

Dates to Know

The primary is August 4, 2026, and the general election is November 3. Early in-person voting for the primary runs from June 19 through August 1, with voter registration and absentee ballot applications due by July 24. Voters who miss the registration deadline can register and cast a provisional ballot in person through Election Day. Both parties’ Senate primaries appear on the August 4 ballot, along with U.S. House and local races.¹³

The Reproductive Rights Amendment on the November Ballot

Reproductive rights will share the November ballot with the Senate race. Virginia’s legislature passed SB 449 in early 2026, placing a constitutional amendment on reproductive freedom before voters on November 3. The amendment would establish a fundamental right to make decisions related to reproductive health care, including abortion access, while allowing the state to restrict abortion in the third trimester with exceptions for the patient’s health or nonviable pregnancies. The bill was approved on February 6, 2026, and takes effect July 1.¹⁴ The referendum could shape turnout for the Senate contest and down-ballot races.

1
Cook Political Report. 2026 Virginia Senate Race Rating
2
Washington Examiner. Navy Marine Veteran David Williams Virginia Senate Campaign
3
270toWin. 2026 Senate Polls – Virginia
4
Virginia Mercury. Warner Files for Reelection, Launching Bid for Fourth U.S. Senate Term
5
Republican Party of Virginia. Republican Party of Virginia Announces Candidates for U.S. Senate Primary
6
CNN. Hung Cao Navy Secretary
7
Cardinal News. Three Republicans Seek U.S. Senate Nomination to Face Warner, All Cite Ties to Trump
8
Bert for Senate. About Bert Mizusawa
9
Charlottesville Tomorrow. QA With Virginia’s Three Republican Primary Candidates for U.S. Senate
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Kim for Virginia. Meet Kim Farington
11
New York Times. Virginia U.S. Senate Election Polls
12
Center for Politics. How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election
13
Virginia Department of Elections. Upcoming Elections
14
Virginia Legislative Information System. SB 449 – Reproductive Freedom Constitutional Amendment